Steady population shift to areas around cities

Source: Pexels

Hayley Ivins-Downes, managing executive of real estate at Lightstone, a provider of comprehensive data, analytics, and systems on property, automotive, and business assets, stated that an analysis of data from 2013 to 2023 suggested subtle shifts in population, including where new housing stock was being registered with the Deeds Office and in which price bands.

But first, what does the data reveal about the pace of urbanisation, even over such a short period?

Population shifts

Ivins-Downes said South Africa’s population had grown from just under 54 million in 2013 to nearly 62 million in 2023 according to Lightstone’s estimates which used the 2011 Census as the baseline.

“The country’s urban population grew by 15.3% from 34 million to 39 million, and the rural population by 9.6% from 17.5 million to 19 million in the same period," she said.

The most significant growth in percentage terms, though, took place in the areas adjacent to urban centres – a 46.2% jump from 2.4 million to 3.5 million people.

This translated into a shift from 4.4% to 5.7% of the total population living in areas adjacent to urban centres, Ivins-Downes said. Correspondingly, the rural population has dropped from 33.3% to 31%, while the urban percentage is unchanged at 63%.

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The Western Cape urban areas recorded the most population growth in percentage terms (22%) in the years 2013-2023, while Limpopo and Gauteng lead the way (106% and 105%) in growth around urban centres. The Free State and North West recorded net rural area losses.

Ivins-Downes said Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Gauteng recorded the greatest numbers of people moving from rural areas to areas adjacent to urban boundaries. The City of Cape Town was the only municipality in the Western Cape to appear in the top 20.

Which cities have recorded the new property registrations?

It’s the usual suspects – with Lesedi the outlier.

The City of Cape Town added most properties since 2019, with 57,250 new properties registered at the Deeds Office. However, Ivins-Downes pointed out that four of the top six cities gaining most new properties, though, were in Gauteng, with the City of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, the City of Tshwane, and Lesedi joined by KwaZulu-Natal’s eThekwini in the top six.

Lesedi, south-east of Johannesburg, was the quickest growing in percentage terms. The local municipality worked closely with the Gauteng Department of Human Settlements to provide land and infrastructure for housing and has delivered more than 11,000 houses and formalised 943 informal stands.

Despite the progress, the housing backlog remained high because of continuous migration into the area.

Highest volume change

While volume changes to stock inevitably came from the country’s major metros, Lesedi aside, the percentage growth (new stock as a percentage increase on old stock) since 2019 told a different story.

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Ivins-Downes said a greater proportion of homes were registered in smaller towns, and mostly in the lower price ranges, other than the standout semigration destinations.

uMshwati in KwaZulu-Natal, about 120km northwest of Durban, lead the way with a 57% jump, followed by Umzimvubu in the Eastern Cape (55%), Nquthu in KwaZulu-Natal (43%) and Lesedi, southeast of Joburg in Gauteng (40%), where Heidelberg is the seat of the municipality.

Ivins-Downes said while the average value of new stock in these municipalities ranged from R144,000 in uMshwathi to R600,000 in Nquthu, Drakenstein in the Western Cape lead the way in terms of higher valued new stock properties. Drakenstein’s municipal seat is Paarl, and stock volume in this Cape Winelands’ municipality increased by 13% since 2019, and the average value of new stock added was R2.1m.

“Other municipalities at the higher end included KwaDukuza in KwaZulu-Natal (11% increase, average value of new stock R2.7m) and Maruleng in Limpopo (11% increase, average value of new stock R3.7m).

KwaDukuza, including Ballito, is in the hilly north coast of the province, and was previously known as Stanger, while Maruleng’s municipal seat is Hoedspruit, gateway to the Kruger National Park and many other private game reserves,” Ivins-Downes said.

Madibeng in North West, a platinum mining hub which includes Brits and the popular tourist area of Hartbeesfontein, has seen stock increase by 10%, and at levels nearing R1m.

Breaking down stock registered in four price bands since 2019, we have Gauteng and Western Cape dominating the top four places in every category, with KwaZulu-Natal coming in at fifth in three of the categories. Western Cape is overweighted in the higher price bands, while the likes of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Free State appear in the lower price bands.

Ivins-Downes said the City of Cape Town registered the greatest number of new properties in three bands – under R500k, R1m-R3m and over R3m, while it registered the third most in the R500k-R1m category. Gauteng’s Ekurhuleni was tops in the R500k-R1m category, while the City of Johannesburg was second in all categories.

The third largest number of properties under R500k were registered in Lesedi, while Manguang in the Free State and the City of Matlosana (Klerksdorp is the municipal seat) in North West followed Erkuhuleni in this category.

In the R500k-R1m price band, Emalahlenli in Mpumalanga and Polokwane in Limpopo followed eThekweni.

“In terms of new stock valued at more than R3m, Western Cape towns accounted for nine of the top 20, most of which would be the destinations semigrants would be moving to. Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal each accounted for three,” she said.