Q3 2024: South Africa’s agricultural sector GDP drops by 28.8% year-on-year

Source: frimufilms via Freepik

This negates the earlier positive data which showed that Q3 primary agriculture employment grew by 4% quarter-on-quarter to 935 thousand jobs underpinned by gains in livestock, horticulture, game, and the production of organic fertilisers.

On the export front, SA’s Q3 agriculture exports rebounded modestly by 5% relative to the same period in 2023 to US$4.12bn with the cumulative total for 2024 reaching $10.55bn which is up 4% year-on-year.

Irrigation due to the relatively good dam levels as well as the improved electricity supply helped cushion the horticulture from the ravaging El Nino-induced drought conditions.

Decline in crop production

The decline was unavoidable given a massive decrease of 22% year-on-year to 12.72 million tonnes for maize, the country’s major staple, and the overall contraction of 9.7% for the total commercially grown summer crops to 15.40 million tonnes, according to the National Crop Estimates Committee.

For winter crops, the total area planted for wheat which accounts for almost 62% of the total declined by 6% year-on-year at 505,300 hectares. All these are an indication of reduced activity in the field crop industry.

The livestock sector was still depressed in Q3 due to the seasonal downturn in demand and has not fully recovered from the previous disease onslaught, hence the poor showing in its contribution to agriculture GDP outcomes.

Looking ahead: Potential rebound for agriculture

With the poor agriculture year at its tail-end, we are looking forward to a potential rebound in agriculture fortunes for the year ahead. Although seasonal rains have been delayed, the outlook still calls for the La Nina weather pattern.

Further, the recent interest rate cuts augur well for renewed confidence in the sector due to the reduced debt servicing costs for farmers.