Bridgewater, Global Citizen, and Harith General unveil research on sub-Saharan Africa's economic potential

Bridgewater CEO Nir Bar Dea, Global Citizen CEO Hugh Evans and World Bank President Ajay Banga pictured with Heads of State from across Africa in April 2024

With nearly 50 years of experience in mapping the intricate cause-and-effect relationships that drive global economies and markets, Bridgewater Associates has long been at the forefront of economic forecasting. Their partnership with Global Citizen, the world’s leading advocacy organization known for its cultural and advocacy work partnering with entertainers and world leaders to call on governments and the private sector to take necessary action to end global extreme poverty, and Harith General Partners, one of the largest investors in African infrastructure, aims to provide insights that will inspire collective action from the world’s richest nations, the global private sector, and local governments in sub-Saharan Africa.

Harnessing the power of demographic change

As global population growth slows, sub-Saharan Africa stands out with a demographic boom that is rapidly increasing its share of the global workforce.

Since initially launching this partnership in support of the World Bank’s IDA21 replenishment efforts, Bridgewater has worked to better understand the dynamic of sub-Saharan Africa’s population growth, its implications for the region’s role in the global economy, and how decisions made by policy makers, investors, and the private sector can send us down alternative paths.

Key research findings:

The new research - Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory - identifies five key takeaways that underline the importance of this demographic shift:

1. Demographic transformation: Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a significant demographic transformation that will have profound effects on regional and global economies and geopolitics in the coming decades. Over the coming decades the region's share of the global working-age population is projected to grow from 10% to 25%. The outcome of this transformation will be a key driver of economic and geopolitical shifts worldwide. The region has the potential to become an engine of global economic growth, but current trajectories suggest a risk of stagnation, which could leave a significant portion of the world behind, with far-reaching global consequences.
   
2. Diversity within the region: Sub-Saharan Africa is not a monolithic entity. There is substantial variation among countries, each with unique development needs requiring tailored solutions. While challenges such as low productivity, insufficient investment, and high debt burdens are common, the degree of these issues varies significantly across the region. Investments and policies must be customised to fit local dynamics, including politics, history and natural resource distribution.
   
3. Infrastructure and human capital: To change the region’s growth trajectory, it is essential to address infrastructure and human capital gaps. Increasing investment in these areas can create a virtuous cycle that drives further investment and growth.
   
4. Role of multilateral development banks (MDBs): MDBs are crucial in supporting infrastructure and human development projects that the private sector may find too risky to finance. Their involvement is vital for foundational progress.
   
5. Private investment: Private investment must play a more significant role in closing the financing gap. However, challenges such as high perceived risks and underdeveloped capital markets currently hinder this potential.
   

Call to action: Economic Development Assembly in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 9-10 October.

The research underscores the urgent collaborative action needed among policymakers, private investors, and MDBs to harness the economic opportunities presented by Sub-Saharan Africa’s demographic growth. By doing so, the global community can help ensure a prosperous future for the region and contribute to the global fight against extreme poverty.

As a result of these findings, Bridgewater Associates, Global Citizen and Harith General Partners are hosting the Economic Development Assembly in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, from 9-10 October, in partnership with the Government of Côte d'Ivoire. The Assembly will serve as a platform to call on global leaders to increase their contributions to the International Development Association’s (IDA) replenishment efforts, starting with the IDA21 cycle. The event will also emphasize the importance of supporting other reputable MDBs that are focused on the development challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa.